Nevertheless, Thai military officials contend that their policy of “carrots and sticks” (especially sticks) is the main reason for the reduced violence since 2013. Continuing violence, distrust on both sides, and the lack of a valid unified negotiating voice among the insurgents have combined to thwart it. The official peace dialogue process in southern Thailand that commenced in 2013 (with Malaysia mediating), has reached no agreement. Rogue elements on each side of the conflict have reportedly profited from oil smuggling, narcotics smuggling, illegal weapons sales, human trafficking and simple corruption opportunities it provides. From 2004 until 2016, the Thai state spent an estimated 264,953,000,000 baht ($8.6 billion) combatting the insurgency, primarily on military hardware, the approximately 70,000 troops in the region, and intelligence and development operations. Thai security forces (military, police and paramilitaries) have been deeply embedded in the Deep South over the last 17 years, an investment in labour and budgeting that has taxed the Thai state greatly. This “unending” insurgency provides a rationale for a hefty defence budget. The causes of the insurrection include ethno-religious tensions, socio-economic grievances, repressive state policies, and a desire for Patani (Thai Malay-Muslims in these southern provinces and Songkhla districts) self-determination. The violence intensified in 2004 but began to diminish in 2013. Since 2004 there have been over 7,200 recorded killings and 13,400 injuries.

The region’s population is predominantly Malay-Muslim with the remainder Buddhist. These latest killings suggest more turmoil in 2021.įor more than a century and a half, this insurgency has persisted in Thailand’s southernmost provinces of Pattani, Narathiwat and Yala and four districts of neighbouring Songkhla province. The Covid-19 pandemic failed to dampen the violence of the long-running insurgency in Thailand’s “Deep South” in 2020. On 25 February, a bomb blast and gunfire killed two paramilitary rangers in Thailand’s Narathiwat province.

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